You have brexit referendum june emailed the post. Prime Minister Theresa May will call a second Brexit referendum because she does not have enough votes to get Brexit through Parliament. Remain could narrowly win the second referendum.
That might cancel Britain’s plan to leave the EU entirely, according to analyst Samuel Tombs. LONDON — Theresa May does not have enough votes to get a “hard Brexit” through parliament and this may force her to call a second referendum on Britain’s final deal with the EU, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Samuel Tombs. The note is eyebrow-raising for two reasons: He is one of very few UK analysts who think that a second Brexit referendum is in any way likely. Most analysts had assumed the prime minister would maintain or increase her majority.
Tombs’ assumption is that macroeconomic conditions drive politics in Britain. Brexit or weasel out of leaving the EU entirely. He also argues that since the June 2016 referendum, Britain appears to have changed its mind. A consistent but small majority of voters polled now believe the decision to leave was “wrong. The crucial pivot for all this is that the government lost a vote that included an amendment to the Brexit bill in December.
That amendment now gives Parliament the right to vote on the Brexit deal at the end of negotiations — all but assuring that any deal will need to be soft rather than hard, or the entire project risks being scrapped. On those stats, Brexit simply doesn’t have enough votes to get through the Commons unless it includes a deal that keeps the UK closely aligned with the customs union and the single market, Tombs says. It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that none of the forms of Brexit that the EU is willing to tolerate can command enough support from her own party’s MPs, or would please enough of the population for the current government to stand a realistic chance of winning the next election. May might find that the only way to break the log-jam and save her premiership is to consult the country again,” Tombs says. Accordingly, a second referendum will become an appealing option for Mrs.